A combination of stepped-up social spending – including on long-neglected healthcare – and a state-led infrastructure push will make the recovery both durable and inclusive Union Budget 2021: India’s federal budget Monday will be a much tougher balancing act than New Delhi’s regular annual fiscal trapeze. For one thing, the pandemic has upset business-as-usual calculations of how much to spend, on what, and how to finance it. For another, an impatience to make up for lost time has to be weighed against a shrinking of policy space in emerging markets: A reprise of the 2013 global taper tantrum could compound the country’s considerable domestic challenges. On the first question — how much to spend — Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman must simply do a lot more. Even with some loosening of the purse strings in the final months of the fiscal year that will end in March, Moody’s Investors Service affiliate ICRA Ltd. expects annual government expenditure to have been broadly unch...