Business Standard looks at past surveys to analyse what their priorities and challenges were
After the 2009-10 economic survey, which projected economic growth on the dot for 2010-11, most surveys in succeeding years have been off track in predicting growth. Surprisingly, the only other exception was the survey of 2015-16 that pegged economic growth in a range of 7-7.75 per cent for 2016-17 and actual growth was indeed 7.1 per cent. The growth fell in the range predicted by the survey despite the year witnessing demonetisation. The major setback in terms of prediction could be the survey of 2010-11, which had forecast growth to be nine per cent for 2011-12 (plus or minus 0.25 per cent) but growth fell down to just 6.5 per cent. Nine per cent growth has remained wishful thinking in recent times even after the change in the GDP computation methodology, which many say overestimates the growth.
Let us now see the focus of the four surveys presented under the Modi government, three of which were authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian's team. The first one was authored by a team led by another Arvind -- then economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram.
The Economic Survey, 2013-14:
The 2013-14 survey focused on reviving investment. It said this required a three-pronged approach that worked through improving India's long-term growth prospects. This strategy was to work through ensuring low inflation by putting in place a framework for monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and food market reforms. It called for tax reforms through goods and services tax (GST) and direct taxes code. While GST came over three years later, direct taxes code was shelved a year after. Only in 2017, the government appointed a committee under Central Board of Direct Taxes member Arbind Modi to redraft direct taxes.
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