Skip to main content

Economic Survey sounds a note of caution on the high equity valuations

Domestic equities have risen sharply on expectations of strong corporate earnings

Eco Survey 2018: Real estate, construction to create 15-mn jobs by 2022 

The Economic Survey 2018 sounded a note of caution on the high equity valuations and hasn’t ruled out a possibility of a correction. After a sharp 23 per cent rally this financial year, the benchmark Sensex is trading at 27 times its trailing 12-month earnings. The broader-market BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices, which have outperformed the benchmark in FY18, are trading at even higher valuations of 47 and 105 times, respectively.

“Sustaining these valuations will require future growth in the economy and earnings in line with current expectations, and require the portfolio re-allocation to be semi-permanent. Otherwise, the possibility of a correction in them cannot be ruled out,” the Survey said.

Domestic equities have risen sharply on expectations of strong corporate earnings. However, the earnings growth has been elusive so far, only to belie analysts’ expectations.

“Expectations of earnings growth are much higher in India. Indeed, it was such expectations that lie at the origin of the stock market boom. In early 2016-17, signs emerged that the long slide in the corporate profits-to-GDP ratio might finally be coming to an end. Investors reacted to this news with alacrity, bidding up share prices in anticipation of a recovery they hoped lay just ahead. Accordingly, the ratio of prices-to-current earnings rose sharply,” said the report.

The lackluster earnings trajectory has been largely on account of policy disruptions such as implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) and demonetisation. The Street is expecting a turnaround in earnings.

“There is exuberance in broader market valuations, largely on account of earnings revival expectations. Therefore, if earnings disappoint or if there is a drop in incremental flows, we could see a sharp correction,” said Gautam Duggad, head of research, Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities. What has kept stock prices afloat despite lack of earnings momentum, is the availability of abundant liquidity — both globally and domestically.

According to the Survey, low interest rates, globally have resulted in a fall in the equity risk premium (ERP). Low ERPs have led to a shift in portfolio allocations from debt to equity.

Read more : Budget 2018

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Nearly 10 mn Afghan children in desperate need of humanitarian aid: UNICEF

  There are nearly 10 million children in Afghanistan “in desperate need of humanitarian aid”, said UNICEF Afghanistan Representative, adding these children are deprived of right to a healthy childhood There are nearly 10 million children in  Afghanistan  “in desperate need of humanitarian aid”, said UNICEF Afghanistan Representative, Herve Ludovic De Lys, adding that these children are deprived of their right to a healthy and protected childhood. “Those least responsible for this crisis, are paying the highest price — including the children killed and injured in a series of atrocities in Kabul since last Thursday”, the senior UN Children’s Fund official told correspondents. “Again, today, I heard of more unsettling reports – of unaccompanied children across the country…more reports of grave violations, including children being recruited by armed groups…All this in a year in which more than 550 children have been killed, and more than 1400 injured.” He said that against a...
Post a Comment
Read more

PSU bank employees go on two-day strike; services hit at many places

  Employees of public sector banks went on two-day strike against the move to privatise public sector banks impacting normal banking operation across the country Employees of  public sector banks  (PSBs) on Thursday went on two-day strike against the move to privatise public sector banks impacting normal banking operation across the country. Many branches across different parts of the country were shut as the United Forum of Bank Union (UFBU), an umbrella body of nine bank unions including All India Bank Officers’ Confederation (AIBOC), All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA) and National Organisation of Bank Workers (NOBW) had given two day strike call. As a result, services such as deposits and withdrawal at branches, cheque clearance and loan approvals might be affected due to the strike. But ATMs are expected to function as usual. Public sector lenders, including State Bank of India, had informed customers that services in their branches might be affected due to ...
Post a Comment
Read more

'When rape is inevitable, enjoy it...': Congress MLA in Karnataka Assembly

  Senior Karnataka Congress leader KR Ramesh Kumar made a sexist and unsavoury comment on rape in the state Assembly Senior  Karnataka Congress leader  and former Karnataka Assembly Speaker KR Ramesh Kumar on Thursday made a sexist and unsavoury comment on rape in the state Assembly. Speaking in the Assembly, Kumar said, “There is a saying that when rape is inevitable, lie down and enjoy it. That is exactly the position in which you are.” The senior Congress MLA’s remark was made when MLAs began to demand time from Speaker Vishweshwara Hegde Kageri to discuss farmers’ issues in the Assembly. When the Speaker asked how the Session would be conducted if the time was allotted to everyone. “Whatever you decide I will say yes. What I am thinking is that let us enjoy the situation. I can’t control or regulate the system, my concern is about the business of the house, it has also to be covered,” the Speaker told the members. To this, the  Congress MLA  Ramesh Kumar mad...
Post a Comment
Read more