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Even as Covid-19 rages, Indian economy’s animal spirits are stabilising

 Five of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News gained last month, while two were unchanged and one deteriorated

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India’s economy showed signs of stabilizing in August with manufacturing and services gradually improving even as coronavirus cases escalated across the country. Five of the eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News gained last month, while two were unchanged and one deteriorated. That kept the needle on a dial measuring so-called animal spirits steady at 4 — a level arrived at by using the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month readings. A strong rebound is still a far way off though as a surge in virus cases continues to disrupt activity and has led many economists to downgrade their growth forecasts for the year.

Business Activity

Activity in India’s dominant services sector continued to pick up, with the main index rising to 41.8 in August from 34.2 in July. While that’s a marked improvement from April’s record low of 5.4, a number below 50 suggests it’s still in contraction territory. Manufacturing bounced back into expansion after four successive months of contraction, with the purchasing managers index rising to 52 from 46 in July. That helped push the composite index for August to 46 from 37.2 a month earlier.

Exports

Exports suffered because of tepid global demand, with shipments falling 12.7% in August from a year earlier. Farm exports and shipments of drugs and pharmaceuticals bucked the trend, growing 22% and 17%, respectively. On the imports side, demand for gold was strong ahead of the festival season, resulting in a widening in the trade deficit…Read More


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