Most parts of India likely to get normal rainfall as IMD ups 2021 forecast

Prediction updated to factor in two weather systems that have a direct bearing on the performance of southwest monsoon.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday upped its 2021 monsoon forecast to 101 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), meaning most parts of the country can expect to get normal to above normal rainfall. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered a normal rainfall. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 percent. The above normal forecast excludes except parts of East and North-East India. The Long Period Average (LPA) of the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June is 88 centimeters.

Releasing the second stage forecast for 2021 monsoon season, IMD said that the forecast has been revised upwards due to prevailing neutral El Nino conditions along with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, the two weather systems that have a direct bearing on the performance of southwest monsoon in India. In its first stage forecast released in April, the IMD had said that the 2021 monsoon is expected to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA.

The forecast was with a model error of plus and minus 5 percent. Region-wise, the IMD said that North-West India is expected to get normal rains at 92-108 per cent of the LPA, while Central India is expected to get above normal rainfall at more than 106 per cent of LPA.Southern India is expected to get rainfall in between 93-107 percent of LPA while North-East India is expected to get below normal rainfall at less than 95 per cent of the LPA. Some experts said that a below normal rainfall in Northeast India is not always harmful as the daily average rainfall in these parts, and the overall quantum is higher than other parts of the country….Read More

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